jame o'keefe

In the wake of his Haiti scandal, his porn star scandal, and his Russia scandal, can Donald Trump sink any lower this week? The answer is a definitive yes. It turns out while Trump was attempting to smear President Obama in racist fashion, he tried to hire a convicted criminal to steal Obama’s records. No really, this is straight out of Watergate, except it’s racist, and it’s even more stupid.

JAMES O’KEEFE

James O’Keefe, a conservative propagandist best known for releasing doctored videos that have smeared everything from ACORN to Planned Parenthood, now admits that Trump tried to hire him to steal Obama’s college records in 2013, according to CNN. Trump was hoping that the transcripts would prove that Obama didn’t really attend Columbia University, which he believed would help validate his racist claim that Obama was secretly born in Kenya and has falsified much of his life.

CONVICTED

It’s worth noting that by this time O’Keefe was already a convicted criminal, having been sentenced to probation for having broken into the offices of Louisiana Governor Mary Landrieu. This means Trump was trying to hire a known convicted criminal to commit a crime. Even after O’Keefe turned Trump down, Trump continued to ask O’Keefe to break into Columbia. According to O’Keefe, he never did pursue the break-in. But considering Trump’s persistence on the matter, we must now investigate whether Trump did end up hiring someone else to commit the crime in question.

RACIST OBSESSION

So now, at the end of a week which has seen Donald Trump saying that he doesn’t want immigrants coming into the United States from (black) countries like Haiti because they’re “shithole countries,” we’re now learning that Trump’s racist obsession with President Obama runs even deeper than we knew. Trump isn’t merely a blatant racist; he may be the most blatant racist of his generation.

 

 

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The Earth is approaching a “mini ice age” as the planet’s temperature is likely to start dropping in 2021, scientists claim.

Amid rising concerns over the effects of global warming, a group of scientists has claimed that the Earth could in a little over a decade be hit by a “mini ice age” that would freeze major rivers.

The startling prediction is based on a mathematical model of the Sun’s magnetic energy which also suggests that Earth’s temperature will start dropping in 2021. The plummeting temperature will then lead to something called the “Maunder minimum”, which is referred to a previous mini ice age that occurred between 1646 and 1715, turning London’s Thames into a frozen river, scientists claimed.

The latest research, led by maths professor Valentina Zharkova at Northumbria University, is built on a previous research that predicts the movements of two magnetic waves produced by the Sun. It also foretells rapidly decreasing magnetic waves for three solar cycles that will begin in 2021, and last for as many as 33 years.

According to the model, the two magnetic waves will become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26 between 2030 and 2040, the waves will become out of sync, causing reduction in solar activity by as much as 60 percent.

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other — peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun,” Zharkova reportedly said in 2015 while conducting a previous research on the phenomenon. “Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’.”

Although Zharkova claimed 97 percent accuracy for the model that corresponds to previous mini ice ages, she did warn that her model could not be used as proof of a future mini ice age, partly because of global warming. The new research paper on the findings was published this year in Astronomy & Geophysics.

“I hope global warning will be overridden by this effect, giving humankind and the Earth 30 years to sort out our pollution,” Zharkova told Sky News, adding that any possible downward impact on global warming will last until 2050s when the Sun’s two magnetic waves become active again.

“We have to be sorted by that time and prepare everything on Earth for the next big solar activity,” Zharkova said.

 


Chelsea Harvey, on December 20, 2017, writes in Scientific American about a study that has found that snowfall in Alaska has increased over the past 150 years due to climate change. Chelsea notes that the study found summer snowfall rose 49% since the mid-19th century, and winter snowfall has increased by a whopping 117 percent.

FASTEST RATE OF WARMING

It may sound counterintuitive — after all, Alaska is experiencing the fastest rate of warming in the country, and the central part of the state has already seen its temperatures climb by 2 to 3 degrees over the last 50 years. But warmer air can hold more moisture, the researchers say, allowing for greater amounts of precipitation, including snow.

NOT ONLY LOCAL WARMING

Scientists say it’s not just the local warming that’s played a role. The study suggests that rising temperatures in the western Pacific and Indian oceans might be an even bigger factor, helping to strengthen a low-pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska that drives warm, moist air — perfect conditions for snowstorms — north across the state. It’s another reminder that the effects of climate change in one location can sometimes produce rippling effects around the world.

ENHANCED CONVECTION

“When there’s warmer temperatures in the tropical ocean, that leads to enhanced convection — basically, air rising into the upper atmosphere — and that creates a sort of anomaly that propagates through the atmosphere,” Winski said. In south-central Alaska, the result is an increase in storms.

PRECIPATION IS BENG AFFECTED IN OTHER AREAS

The scientists say that precipitation is being affected in other areas than just Alaska. Even as the warming oceans are bringing more snow to Denali, other research has suggested that they may also be causing a decrease in Hawaiian rainfall at the same time. In Alaska, the new study provides some of the starkest evidence yet of the region’s continuous response to human-caused climate change, corresponding with 150 years of greenhouse gas emissions.

GLACIERS ARE MELTING

It’s important to note that Alaska’s glaciers are not getting a reprieve. They are still melting and retreating at an alarming rate. 

https://youtu.be/Mc0H_iCZ8IE

 

Ice Loss and the Polar Vortex: How a Warming Arctic Fuels Cold Snaps

When winter sets in, “polar vortex” becomes one of the most dreaded phrases in the Northern Hemisphere. It’s enough to send shivers even before the first blast of bitter cold arrives.

NEW RESEARCH

New research shows that some northern regions have been getting hit with these extreme cold spells more frequently over the past four decades, even as the planet has warmed. While it may seem counterintuitive, the scientists believe these bitter cold snaps are connected to the warming of the Arctic and the effects that that warming is having on the winds of the stratospheric polar vortex, high above the Earth’s surface.

WHAT IS HAPPENING

Here’s what scientists involved in the research think is happening: The evidence is clear that the Arctic has been warming faster than the rest of the planet. That warming is reducing the amount of Arctic sea ice, allowing more heat to escape from the ocean. The scientists think that the ocean energy that is being released is causing a weakening of the polar vortex winds over the Arctic, which normally keep cold air centered over the polar region. That weakening is then allowing cold polar air to slip southward more often.

POLAR VORTEX

The polar vortex has always varied in strength, but the study found that the weaker phases are lasting longer and coinciding with cold winters in Northern Europe and Russia.

“The shift toward more persistent weaker states of the polar vortex lets Arctic air spill out and threaten Russia and Europe with extreme cold,” said the study’s lead author, Marlene Kretschmer, a climate scientist with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “The trend can explain most of the cooling of Eurasian winters since 1990.”

OBAMA’S SCIENCE AND TECH ADVISOR

President Obama’s Science and Technology Advisor, Dr. John Holdren, explains the polar vortex in 2 minutes—and why climate change makes extreme weather more likely going forward.

 

Posted by: maboulette | January 13, 2018

Unhappiest Man In The World


melt down

The word that’s used most often to describe Camp David is “rustic.” The presidential retreat, located in the Catoctin Mountains of Maryland near the Pennsylvania border, was built in the 1930s by the WPA under President Roosevelt and named by President Eisenhower in the 1950s for his grandson, David. Technically a Naval Support Facility staffed by Navy and Marine personnel, Camp David consists of a main cabin, the Aspen Lodge, used by the president during his visits, and about a dozen guest cabins, which have housed members of various presidents’ families and foreign dignitaries, as when the G-8 Summit was held there in 2012, or when President Carter put together President Anwar Sadat of Egypt and Prime Minister Menachem Begin of Israel during the famous peace talks of 1978.

CAMP DAVID

Look up photos of Camp David, and you’ll find shots of presidents and their guests tossing horseshoes, playing tennis, shooting skeet, taking walks in the woods, even bowling. It’s a casual place. Aspen Lodge is a Y-shaped cabin made of rough-cut clapboard siding with a cedar shingled roof and flagstone terraces. The guest cabins, connected by paths that wander through the wooded site, are similarly constructed. By all accounts, it is very much the rustic park-like retreat where presidents, cabinet members and congressional leaders have gone to relax and unwind for more than seven decades.

LEADERS INVITED TO CAMP DAVID

Congressional Republican leaders and members of the cabinet got the message last weekend when they were invited up to Camp David for a political summit to make plans for 2018.  Speaker of the House Paul Ryan was photographed in khakis, a checked shirt and a bright blue fleece under a blazer; Senate Leader Mitch McConnell wore blue jeans, a button-down shirt, and a red V-neck sweater under a blazer. Senator John Cornyn wore khakis and a dark open collar shirt under a blazer. Even buttoned-up Vice President Pence wore khakis and an open-necked button-down shirt under a blazer.

SAME CLOTHES HE AWAYS WEARS

But not President Donald Trump. He was attired, as he has been virtually every day since he’s been president except when on the golf course, in his usual dark, boxy business suit, white shirt, and tie. His clothing might fit the description of a uniform were it not so obviously a suit of armor. The man is apparently congenitally incapable of letting down his guard and relaxing even for one minute.

DAILY SCHEDULE

A story in Axios over the weekend had details of the new presidential daily schedule. Trump’s official day in the White House often doesn’t begin until 11 a.m. Before that the schedule shows “Executive Time,” from eight until 11 a.m. Axios reports White House sources say Trump usually spends that time in his private residence watching TV and tweeting. George W. Bush began his day in the Oval Office at 6:45. President Obama worked out early in the morning and was usually behind his desk by 9 a.m. Last Tuesday, according to Axios, Trump’s schedule went like this: “Trump has his first meeting of the day with Chief of Staff John Kelly at 11am. He then has ‘Executive Time’ for an hour followed by an hour lunch in the private dining room. Then it’s another 1 hour 15 minutes of ‘Executive Time’ followed by a 45-minute meeting with National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster. Then another 15 minutes of ‘Executive Time’ before Trump takes his last meeting of the day — a 3:45 pm meeting with the head of Presidential Personnel Johnny DeStefano — before ending his official day at 4:15pm.”

DELUGE OF HATE

But let’s put aside Trump’s so-called “schedule” for a moment and consider what it’s like to be him. How would you like to wake up in the morning and confront the deluge that awaits him every single day? The entire op-ed page of the New York Times hates him and it’s much the same at the Washington Post. Even the “conservative” writers on both papers are never-Trumpers.

TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS

Every day, he gets taken to the cleaners around the clock by The Daily Beast, Buzzfeed, Raw Story, Slate, Daily Kos, Huffington Post, The Nation, Mother Jones, and I don’t know how many others.

CRITICAL

Shows on MSNBC and CNN are famously critical of Trump, from early in the morning until late at night.

HIS SIDE

And who’s on his side? Well, he’s got Fox and the editorial page of the Wall Street Journal, and Breitbart and down in the right-wing weeds, Drudge and Limbaugh and the geniuses at Townhall.

TRUMP’S WORLD

That’s Trump’s world, and it’s probably why he’s on the job only a few hours every day. But from what’s in Michael Wolff’s insider-fueled “Fire and Fury,” he doesn’t spend much time relaxing. When Trump isn’t daydreaming his way through official meetings, he’s on the phone to friends and confidants complaining. Or watching TV and inhaling quarter-pounders (with cheese, no pickles, extra ketchup) and tweeting. In nearly a year as president, he hasn’t drawn a happy breath.

STILL NOT HAPPY

But why? Outside the walls of the West Wing, the world is going his way. The stock market is booming, unemployment is at near-historic lows, wages are trending up, Isis is on the ropes, they passed a huge tax cut for his rich pals, and all over the government, his minions are busy crippling regulations that protect air, water, food, medicine, banking, oil drilling and mining – hell, even nursing homes. He hasn’t scrimped on vacations. According to NBC, as of the end of 2017, out of what was then 354 days in office, Trump had spent a total of 117 days on vacation at Trump properties, and 90 of them playing golf. He spent 27 days at Trump International West Palm Golf Course, one day at Trump National Jupiter, 23 at Trump National Potomac Falls, and 39 at Trump National Bedminster. He has taken off one-third of his presidency. You’d think he’d be giddy with delight.

MID 30’S APPROVAL RATINGS

But he hasn’t budged from the mid-30’s in approval ratings in the polls. Somewhere north of 55 percent of the public disapprove of the job he’s doing as president. He’s got Special Prosecutor Mueller subpoenaing everything from his campaign’s emails to his banking records. His son and son-in-law are being called before congressional committees and grilled about their connections to Russians during the campaign. Two of his former campaign officials are under indictment for multiple felonies, with another having pled guilty, and his former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, who was by his side all the way through his campaign, has pled guilty to a felony and is telling Mueller everything he knows. In a recent interview with the New York Times, Trump said there was “no collusion” with Russia 16 times, appearing to wish away the connections that have already been proven.

REAL SMILE

He hasn’t cracked a genuine smile in public in months. Remember the photos of Trump and Melania sitting at the head table at the Congressional luncheon following his inauguration? Neither of them smiled even once. They didn’t talk to anyone or to each other — and it was the greatest day of his life!  Michael Wolff found a source who told him Trump was miserable for the entire day of his inauguration. He was displeased with his shabby accommodations at Blair House, across the street from the White House, the night before. He was fighting with his wife Melania about something. When reports late in the day showed the crowds at the inauguration were sparse, Trump blew his stack and sent spokesman Sean Spicer before the press bellowing a blatant lie that they were the largest in history. It was the very first of nearly 2,000 lies Trump has told, or ordered to be told in his name, since taking office. But not even lying his way through the job of being president makes him happy.

 


Muiller

Last week the most significant news yet in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Donald Trump’s Russia scandal was reported: he’s probing how the Trump campaign, the Republican Party, and Russia conspired to alter the outcome of the election in Michigan and Wisconsin. Why these two swing states? Why not other suspicious swing states? Perhaps he’s targeting those as well. But Michigan and Wisconsin are now confirmed – and based on what’s already publicly known, it’s for good reason.

NEW YORK MAGAZINE

The report first came from New York Magazine that Mueller is indeed investigating how Trump, the RNC and Russia rigged these two states. So, let’s look at what we already know about what went down in Michigan and Wisconsin. While the polls were generally correct on a national level, they were wildly and suspiciously off in these two states. There was no reason for anyone to expect that Trump had any chance to win in either state. Yet at least two of the people running Trump’s campaign somehow knew otherwise.

PAUL MANAFORT

Just before election day, months after Trump had fired him, former campaign chairman Paul Manafort called up Trump and told him to go campaign in Michigan, according to a Bloomberg report. Why? No one knows. But it has  since been learned that Manafort was so deeply and illegally connected to Russia, he’s now awaiting trial for charges including Conspiracy Against the United States.

PLAUSIBLE EXPLANATION

Did Russia tell Manafort that it was rigging Michigan for Trump? Did Manafort then tell Trump to go campaign there at the last minute, as cover for when he magically “won” the state? Keep in mind that Trump spent his time in Michigan targeting black voters, who were obviously never going to vote for him. This wasn’t an attempt at winning any votes. It was an attempt at creating a plausible explanation for an illegitimate victory in the state. But this was just the beginning.

MICHIGAN

Well before election day, Steve Bannon privately told someone at the Hollywood Reporter that he knew Trump would win Michigan.  So, Trump’s campaign chairman and his campaign CEO both somehow “knew” Trump would win a state that by any possible measure, he appeared to have no chance of winning. It gets uglier.

COMPUTER SERVER

Back in February of 2017, it was reported that a computer server at Trump Tower, which was set up to only communicate with a small number of outside targets, was in communication with Russia and a health care company in Michigan. That health care company is controlled by the DeVos family. After Trump inexplicably won Michigan, Trump named Betsy DeVos his Secretary of Education. What was being transmitted from Russia, to Trump Tower, and then to Trump’s allies in Michigan?

MICHIGAN AND WISCONSIN

Why did the Republican-controlled states of Michigan and Wisconsin work so feverishly to prevent the attempted recounts from reaching completion? The Detroit News reported that eighty-seven voting machines mysteriously broke on election day in Detroit, a city where Hillary Clinton dominated. Wisconsin also had a long series of unexplained oddities during its own recount, ranging from multiple Republican officials blaming vote total errors on modems, to broken seals on voting machines, to bizarre antics by recount workers.

 

Posted by: maboulette | January 13, 2018

Donald Trump Has Surreal Meltdown About Russian Collusion


Trump and bannon 6

There’s denying an accusation. There’s thoroughly denying it. There’s protesting too much. Then there’s what Donald Trump did when it comes to accusations that his campaign colluded and worse with the Russian government in the name of rigging the election. Trump sat down for an interview with the New York Times. The newspaper asked him about several topics. But all he wanted to talk about was Russian collusion.

TWENTY-THREE TIMES

Thus far the NY Times has only transcribed portions of the interview. But even the partial transcript has Donald Trump saying the word “collusion” a whopping twenty-three times. Remarkably, based on the partial transcript at least, the interviewer didn’t use the word “collusion” once. All it took was a mere mention of Jeff Sessions recusing himself in the Russia investigation, and Trump was off to the races. No matter the topic, Trump kept bringing it back to Russian collusion. Strung together, his collusion remarks added up to a rather surreal meltdown.

NO COLLUSION

Trump started with this: “Frankly there is absolutely no collusion, that’s been proven by every Democrat is saying it.” For the record, there are no Democrats saying this. His thoughts on Robert Mueller? “I can only tell you that there is absolutely no collusion.” How long does he think the investigation will take? “There’s been no collusion.” But don’t worry, because Trump can’t wait to announce that there wassome collusion with Russia, just not from his campaign.

RUSSIA AND DEMOCRATS?

That’s right, Donald Trump wants you to believe that the real collusion was between Russia and the Democrats. What’s his basis for this? Absolutely nothing, yet he still coughed up this hairball: “So, I actually think that it’s turning out — I actually think it’s turning to the Democrats because there was collusion on behalf of the Democrats. There was collusion with the Russians and the Democrats. A lot of collusion.” What’s he talking about? No one knows, particularly him. You can read the rest of the NY Times transcript here.

 


issa

Republican Congressman Darrell Issa, a powerful and controversial figure who keeps managing to get reelected no matter how much backlash has piled up against him over the years, announced yesterday that he’s not seeking reelection in 2018. He’s just the latest Republican in Congress to throw in the towel ahead of 2018, and it’s not simply due to the blue wave we all know is coming. Look at who is retiring.

HISTORIC NUMBER NOT RUNNING

We’ve seen a historic number of Republicans in Congress announce of late that they won’t run in 2018. That alone is notable. But what stands out even more is this: a disproportionate number of the Republicans calling it quits are committee chairs or subcommittee chairs. Yes, they’ll lose those chairmanships if the Democrats take the House and Senate majority. But it’s not as if those roles would go away entirely for the Republican chairs, as they’d still hold ranking member or vice chair titles. This can’t just be about the blue wave and Congress flipping. It must be about something more.

COMMITTEE CHAIRS

The thing about committee chairs is that they tend to know things the rest of us, even their fellow committee members, don’t know. For instance, Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, as ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, has seen quite a bit of classified information about the Trump-Russia scandal that no one else on the committee aside from Chuck Grassley has seen. That secret evidence surely played a role in making her feel justified in releasing the non-classified Trump Russia transcripts yesterday. People in these positions know things.

ISSA KNOWS?

What does Darrell Issa know that we don’t? Whatever it is, he likely learned it thanks to his role as a House Judiciary subcommittee chairman. What does Orrin Hatch, who also prematurely announced he won’t be running in 2018, know? He probably learned it as Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. It’s not that these roles would necessarily provide them with information on the Trump-Russia scandal specifically. But these committee leaders must be learning something that’s motivating them to hurry up and get it on the record that they won’t be running in elections that are still ten months away. Until we figure out what they know that we don’t, 2018 is all still something of a puzzle. But the most informed Republicans in Congress sure do think their party is going to get wiped out.


Trump 2

Donald Trump has lost so many of his top advisers during his first year in the White House, it’s almost easier to compile a list of the few senior advisers that are left. The departures have been the result of resignations, power struggles, firings, criminal scandals, and other embarrassing incidents. Now it turns out a slew of Trump’s top remaining people, including some household names, are preparing to exit the building as well.

OUT THE DOOR

Three of Trump’s top advisers have one foot out the door, according to a new CNN report. White House Counsel Don McGahn, who is now directly in the line of fire in the Trump-Russia scandal, is on the verge of resigning. As was reported pointed out earlier this week, McGahn’s wife just abruptly resigned from her own Trump administration job, a sign that his split from Trump is likely to be acrimonious. There is strong circumstantial evidence that McGahn has already flipped on Trump and cut a deal. Two other recognizable names are also reportedly on their way out.

ECONOMIC ADVISER

Trump economic adviser Gary Cohn, who has publicly condemned Trump’s racism in the past, and who is quoted as saying horrible things about Trump in Michael Wolff’s new insider book, is also on his way out, according to CNN. National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, who took over the job after Michael Flynn was fired for illegally conspiring with the Russians, is also considering an imminent departure.

ALREADY GONE

In the past several weeks alone, Donald Trump has lost Deputy White House Chief of Staff Rick Dearborn and Deputy National Security Adviser Dina Powell to resignations, and he’s fired former Apprentice contestant Omarosa from her poorly defined White House job. Steve Bannon, Sebastian Gorka, Sean Spicer, Reince Priebus, Anthony Scaramucci, KT McFarland, Katie Walsh, and countless other hand-picked Trump White House advisers have also bailed in the first year.

 

 

 

Posted by: maboulette | January 10, 2018

Donald Trump’s Attorney Goes Off the Deep End


Cohen

During the course of Tuesday, Donald Trump’s Russia scandal got infinitely worse for him. Senate Judiciary Committee ranking member Dianne Feinstein released long-suppressed transcripts from the guy whose company was responsible for the Trump-Russia dossier, and it confirmed some of the worst assumptions about the scandal. It also set off a chain of events, including Trump’s personal attorney going off the deep end.

MICHAEL COHEN

Michael Cohen is Trump’s longtime personal and business attorney. He’s also a suspect in the Trump-Russia scandal. He’s accused of having played several roles in coordinating things behind the scenes between Trump and the Russian government, ranging from an attempt at building Trump Tower Russia during the campaign, to an alleged meeting to negotiate the terms of the blackmail that Russia is holding over Trump. The latter accusation was levied in the Trump-Russia dossier, but no evidence was provided; Cohen insists that no such meeting ever happened. The release of the transcripts today, which lent significant credence to the dossier overall, has led Cohen to sue everyone in sight.

FILED LAWSUITS

Cohen has suddenly filed lawsuits against Fusion GPS, the company behind the dossier, and BuzzFeed, the first news outlet to publish the dossier, according to ABC News and other sources. He asserts that the claims about him in the dossier are false and defamatory and that they’ve caused him harm. What’s notable is that the newly released transcripts don’t substantiate the claims made in the dossier about Cohen; it’s unclear why this release prompted Cohen to do what he did.

 

Posted by: maboulette | January 7, 2018

Prediction on the Golden Globes


golden

The 2018 Golden Globes will air on Sunday, Jan. 8 at 8 p.m. ET. Hosted by Seth Meyers, the 75th annual ceremony will kick off the year’s awards season in earnest, awarding 2017’s best performances in film and television. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which doles out Golden Globes, always seems to have a few surprises up its sleeves, and this year will undoubtedly be no exception. Here are our predictions for who will take home trophies on Sunday night.

PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURES

Dunkirk | The Post | The Shape of Water | Call Me by Your Name | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This year is one of the most wide-open awards seasons in recent memory, and there’s no clear frontrunner in the Best Picture race. Steven Spielberg’s The Post received a near-unanimous endorsement when it screened for critics, but Guillermo del Toro’s whimsical monster-fish romance, which leads the Globes with seven nominations, has the edge with an awards body that’s trended indie in recent years (see: MoonlightBoyhood).

BEST PICTURE, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

The Disaster Artist | Get Out | The Greatest Showman | I, Tonya | Lady Bird

Despite the fact that Get Out continues to be talked about nearly a year after its release (and notwithstanding the fact that it’s not actually a comedy), Lady Bird‘s momentum feels unstoppable at this point. Still in theaters after a November release, it won a bevy of critics’ association awards in December and its honest, heartfelt story of a mother-daughter relationship continues to win over moviegoers.

BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game | Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water | Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Meryl Streep, The Post | Michelle WilliamsAll the Money in the World

Three Billboards has been one of the season’s most divisive movies, inspiring a months-long debate about its depiction of a racist cop (Sam Rockwell) and its portrait of small-town America. But the controversy is unlikely to faze the HFPA, which might finally honor Frances McDormand after five previous individual nominations. Sally Hawkins, who won a Golden Globe for 2008’s Happy-Go-Lucky, may prove stiff competition.

BEST ACTOR, DRAMA

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name | Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. | Tom Hanks, The Post | Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread | Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Timothée Chalamet made quite a splash this fall with his tender turn as a teenager in love in Call Me by Your Name, winning several honors over heavyweights like Daniel Day-Lewis and Gary Oldman. But Oldman, considered by many to be overdue for awards recognition, has the edge for his studious, prosthetic-assisted depiction of Winston Churchill — unless the HFPA holds a grudge for his repeated criticism of their organization and the Golden Globes.

BEST ACTRESS, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul | Margot Robbie, I, Tonya | Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes | Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker

Saoirse Ronan leads the pack based on both the sheer force of her performance and the Globes’ history of favoring so-called ingenues in the leading actress categories (see: Emma Stone, 2017; Jennifer Lawrence, 2016; Jennifer Lawrence, 2013.) Though the HFPA might pull out a surprise and reward Margot Robbie for her sympathetic portrayal of Tonya Harding (despite considerable groaning about that movie’s tone), Ronan’s third time at the Globes might just be the charm.

BEST ACTOR, COMEDY OR MUSICAL

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes | Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver | James Franco, The Disaster Artist Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman | Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

It’s not hard to imagine the HFPA favoring a Hollywood nice guy like Steve Carell or Hugh Jackman, but the hype around James Franco’s transformation into cult filmmaker Tommy Wiseau — in a movie about Hollywood, the HFPA ‘s favorite genre — makes him the favorite Sunday night. Though it would be an upset, we wouldn’t mind seeing some love for Daniel Kaluuya, whose performance in Get Out deserves recognition.

TV PREDICTIONS

The Crown | Game of Thrones | The Handmaid’s Tale | Stranger Things | This Is Us

The Hulu adaptation of Margaret Atwood’s bestselling dystopian novel swept the Emmys with wins for the show, its star Elisabeth Moss, supporting actor Ann Dowd and writer Bruce Miller. Though Netflix’s Queen Elizabeth series The Crown won top honors at the Globes last year and remains a critical darling, the #MeToo moment will help power The Handmaid’s Tale to a victory this year.

 

 

 

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