Posted by: maboulette | April 12, 2017

Trump Has No Clue What To Do In Foreign Policy


Trump and sec of state

Back during his campaign, Trump summed up his foreign policy this way: “We must as a nation be more unpredictable.”

INCOHERENCE

But now that he is commander-in-chief, uneasy allies say that unpredictability might be better termed as incoherence — a dangerous policy at a moment of high tension with Russia and Syria, and with U.S. warships heading toward the Korean Peninsula.

WORRIES

In latest weeks, the new president has held meetings with his equals from other countries. But in some cases, those sessions have only heightened worries that Trump doesn’t have a clear sense of what way he plans to take U.S. foreign policy.

ANGELA MERKEL

Few if any world leaders, for example, have had as much involvement in dealing with U.S. presidents as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is on her third.

PIN TRUMP DOWN

Last month during their White House meeting, Merkel tried to pin down Trump on one of the top concerns of U.S. trading partners — a proposed “border adjustment tax” to be levied on imported goods. Publicly, Trump has signaled openness to the idea, but he also said it has its drawbacks.

“Don’t worry,” Trump told Merkel, holding his thumb and forefinger close together. “It will only be a little bit.”

TALK OF DIPLOMATIC CIRCLES

Trump’s answer — together with Merkel’s exasperation — has been the talk of diplomatic circles in both Washington and Europe.

“So all the chancellor of Germany knows is that, ‘It will only be a little bit,’ ” said a senior European diplomat in Washington, holding up his fingers as Trump did, and repeating an account set by others in anxious embassies in Washington. “It’s very puzzling.”

MORE THAN VAGUE

Vagueness has always had a place in diplomacy, of course. But Trump adds to that a freestyle approach to international relations. He has contempt for norms and protocol, an impulsive nature and a tendency toward making conflicting statements.

DIRECTION OF POLICY

Compounding this chaos is the fact that those who claim to speak for Trump — Cabinet officials and top White House advisers — also have offered conflicting statements on basic questions about the direction of U.S. policy.

POSITIVE

Trump aides boasted, for instance, of a “positive” chemistry between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during their two-day session at Trump’s Florida resort over the weekend.

NO MOVEMENT

But there was no movement on U.S. efforts to have China put pressure on North Korea. And by Tuesday, Trump was engaging in diplomacy via Twitter.

“I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!” he tweeted, suggesting that national security distresses might supersede his long-standing promise to crack down on Chinese trade practices.

LATER

Four minutes later, Trump followed with another tweet suggesting he might be leaning toward unilateral action: “North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.”

FOREIGN AMBASSADORS

In interviews over the past few weeks with a half-dozen foreign ambassadors based in Washington, most criticized — diplomatically, of course — that thin lines of communication have made it hard for them to clarify U.S. intentions to officials in their home capitals. That is creating tension on traditionally solid alliances, they said.

“Nobody can tell us on Russia what the American policy is, on Syria what the American policy is, on China what the American policy is,” one ambassador said. “I’m not sure there is a policy. They will listen to me and tell me, ‘We will get back to you when there is a policy.’ ”

ANONYMITY

The ambassadors spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid straining relations with the new administration. Or as one put it: “We don’t want to be too hard on them at the very beginning.”

NEW ADMINISTRATION

The diplomats said the problem was partly caused by a new administration still in transition and focused on health care, tax reform and other domestic issues. But as the weeks have passed, allies are growing more concerned that partial communication could lead to misunderstandings if a security or diplomatic security crisis blow up somewhere in the world.

NOT SURE

“I don’t know what will happen,” one said. “You had a president who took three months to take a decision, and now you have one who takes three seconds. It’s very worrying.”

CONCERN

Several diplomats said that early Trump meetings with Merkel, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and British Prime Minister Theresa May also raised concerns over Trump’s unorthodox style of working largely with no detailed notes and speaking off the cuff

“He doesn’t have a paper in front of him. . . . It’s up to the visitor to declare the agenda,” one said. “He just sits there. It’s like you are in a bar, and you just start talking to him.”

OFFICIAL FROM WHITE HOUSE

White House officials maintain that the president has been fully briefed before his meetings with foreign leaders, and that adequate advance work has been done in bilateral sessions that precede them. But they also note that the specifics of Trump administration policy are still a work in progress.

“It’s the early days. A lot of this stuff hasn’t been worked through,” said Michael Anton, who runs communications for the National Security Council.

Trump’s priority in these early meetings with foreign leaders, Anton added, is “relationship-building, airing the issues.”

DECODE THIS PRESIDENCY

While some diplomats and leaders puzzle over how to decode an opaque and often contradictory presidency, they have figured out one language to which Trump responds: flattery.

JORDAN

In his joint appearance with Trump, Jordan’s King Abdullah II lathered up the president with praise for a “holistic approach” to the Middle East, which he said is “a move in the right direction.”

SECOND MEETING

It was their second meeting since Trump’s election, and Trump returned the compliments, calling Abdullah a “warrior.” Their joint news conference was the first of Trump’s presidency to be held in the Rose Garden.

DAY TO DAY

Outside of choreographed photo ops, the day-to-day situation is far different.

FRUSTATION

Several envoys termed frustration at the slow pace of appointments to serious jobs, especially in the State Department, which has sometimes left them stressed to get even the most basic information.

“When you reach out to them, it’s like you are reaching out to a body that has a head and legs, but no torso. The blood is not flowing from above to below,” one said.

STATE DEPARTMENT

State Department spokesman R.C. Hammond said that a transition is underway that will “continue on for many months.” He added that both Trump and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson are unwavering around finding a new way of conducting international relations because the old one was not working.

“People are starting to learn the new language,” Hammond said of foreign diplomats who deal with the State Department. “They should be encouraged, because there’s great opportunity.”

COMUNICATION

The ambassadors said communication with the Pentagon and the National Security Council is better, and they uniformly articulated respect for national security adviser H.R. McMaster and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. But even at those agencies, they said, information on U.S. economic, trade and security policy is often hard to get.

ECONOMIC ADVISER

Another channel is Trump’s chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, to whom diplomats are turning for information on economic policy, including the border adjustment tax.  Cohn has been responsive and seems to have the president’s ear, one diplomat said. “For us, he’s been the guy.”

If a foreign policy crisis were to flare, perhaps over North Korea or Iran, several ambassadors expressed worry that the lack of the contacts at many levels of government could keep them from being able to fully explain Trump’s actions to their leaders back home.

One ambassador said that when he approached the State Department and the White House recently, he was told to come back if he has an emergency to discuss.

Several added that they have tried to be creative in their tactics to the Trump administration, increasingly going outside the normal channels. Some said they have tried to leverage friendships with people in business having ties to Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner or daughter Ivanka Trump to gain access to those key members of Trump’s inner circle.

What entree exists is generally limited to ambassadors talking to top White House officials, without the traditional bureaucrat-to-bureaucrat relations at lower levels where work is usually conducted.

“I have never had trouble getting access,” one ambassador said. “But when we have visitors below the top levels, like members of parliament, we can’t find panelists for them.”

The envoys said Trump has made efforts to create ties with the foreign diplomatic corps, including many at the Mar-a-Lago for the Red Cross Ball on Feb. 4.

But they said the transition period had been unlike any they had ever seen.

“The question is, will the close allies maintain that same natural cooperation that we have had for 70 years?” one ambassador said. “The leaders of those allies want to maintain a relationship of trust with the traditional leader of the Western world. But today we have the impression that the chair of the leader of the Western world is a little bit empty. We are reaching out to test those relationships, but we have no answer.”

Says another: “It’s quite distressing that the Americans are so unpredictable. Unpredictability is the worst.”

 

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