Posted by: maboulette | December 12, 2016

Trump and the Intelligence Community


intelligence

The distrust between Donald Trump and U.S. intelligence agencies intensified into open bitterness Saturday after the president-elect mocked a CIA report that Russian operatives had interfered in the U.S. presidential election and helped him to win.  

TENSIONS

The growing tensions could potentially set up a showdown between Trump and the nation’s top intelligence officials during what some of those officials describe as the most complex threat atmosphere in decades.

WASHINGTON POST

The Washington Post reported Friday that the CIA has determined that Russia had intervened in the presidential election not just to make mischief but to actually boost Trump’s chances of winning.

EXISTING SPLIT

Trump’s retort will probably deepen an already existing split between Trump and the agencies and will raise questions about how the government’s 16 spying agencies will function in his administration on matters such as cyber-warfare and counterterrorism. On Friday, members of Trump’s transition team dismissed the CIA’s assessments using their errors about Iraq’s stockpile of weapons of mass destruction.

REVENGE

“Given his proclivity for revenge combined with his notorious thin skin, this threatens to result in a lasting relationship of distrust and ill will between the president and the intelligence community,” said Paul Pillar, former deputy director of the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center.

UNCHARTER TERRITORY

U.S. intelligence officials described rising confusion and concern about how to continue in an administration that is so openly hostile to their role and function. “I don’t know what the end game is here,” a senior U.S. intelligence official said. “After Jan. 20,” the official said, referring to Inauguration Day, “we’re in uncharted territory.”

COULD ESCALATE

The tensions between Trump and spy agencies could escalate even further as dozens of analysts begin work on a project, ordered by President Obama, to deliver a comprehensive report on Russian intervention in the election before Trump’s inauguration in January.

Led by Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr., the investigation is aimed at reaching a definitive conclusion about the Russian role in the election. Obama aides have promised to make as much of the report as possible public once completed.

“We want to make sure we brief Congress and relevant stakeholders, like possibly state administrators who actually operationalize the elections,” White House spokesman Eric Schultz told reporters Friday.

CHALLENGE FOR TRUMP

But this report could also cause a complication challenge for Trump, pitting the entire U.S. intelligence community against a newly sworn-in president who has repeatedly degraded their work.

RUSSIAN HACKERS

The Post reported late Friday that the CIA had determined that individuals having close ties to the Russian government delivered thousands of hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee, including Hillary Clinton’s campaign chairman, to Wikileaks several weeks before the election. Intelligence officials have determined that Russia’s goal was to help Trump win, rather than simply undermine confidence in the election.

TRUMP

In a statement, Trump suggested that the CIA had discredited itself with faulty intelligence assessments on Iraq’s weapons stockpile more than a dozen years ago.

“These are the same people that said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction,” he said.

INTELLIGENCE ALARMED

This belittling response alarmed people in the intelligence community. This community already have questioned Trump’s temperament as well as his lack of national security experience. Despite mounting evidence over Moscow’s involvement in a hack of the Democratic National Committee, Trump has constantly refused to entertain any doubts about the Russians’ role or about Russian President Vladi­mir Putin.

PUTIN

Trump has spoken admiringly of Putin in the past, calling him a stronger leader than Obama, and one of Trump’s former campaign managers had business associations with Russian companies.

“I don’t believe it. I don’t believe they interfered,” Trump told Time magazine of the Russians in a recent interview during which he suggested the accusations from the United States were politically driven.

Instead, Trump took direct aim at the spies community charged with evaluating what Clapper in September called the “most complex and diverse array of global threats” in his 53 years of service.

TRACKING

Intelligence agencies are tracking Russia’s military interventions in Syria and Ukraine, Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal, North Korea’s nuclear weapons testing and China’s maritime challenges in Asia and theft of trade secrets. The CIA is operating a covert program to arm and train moderate rebels in Syria to overcome the brutal rule of President Bashar al-Assad, even as Trump has praised Russia’s approach to backing Assad.

FEW BRIEFINGS

Since his electoral triumph last month, Trump has attended only a limited number of intelligence briefings, and he appointed as his national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn, who was forced out of his job as head of the Defense Intelligence Agency by Obama administration officials.

UNCERTAINTY

Trump also has created a climate of uncertainty over how his administration would approach counterterrorism and intelligence gathering after speaking approvingly of torture methods, including waterboarding terrorism suspects, which was banned by Obama. Trump has since appeared to moderate his position after meeting with retired Marine Corps Gen. James N. Mattis, whom he intends to nominate as defense secretary and who has said such techniques don’t work.

PENCE

Trump’s transition aides have explained his unwillingness to make time for more intelligence briefings as a consequence of his busy schedule building an administration and selecting Cabinet members. Vice President-elect Mike Pence has reportedly attended such briefings most days.

OBAMA AND BUSH

But Trump’s approach has contrasted with that of his predecessors, including Obama and George W. Bush, who attended multiple briefings each week leading up to their inaugurations.

In his statement, Trump emphasized that the election was over and vowed to “move on,” and he did not, as is his habit, react to the CIA story on social media in the hours after it was published.

SENATORS

Congressional Democrats have called for investigations into Russia’s interference, but reaction among Republican leaders was divided. Sens. John McCain (Ariz.) and Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.) vowed to pursue the matter, but Sen. John Cornyn (Tex.) said Russia has been involved in cyberattacks for years and said the new allegations were “serious, but hardly news.”

POMPEO CROSSFILE

Trump’s handling of questions regarding Russian intervention will put enormous strain on his nominee to lead the CIA, Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-Kan.), who may find himself caught in the crossfire between the agency and his president. Pillar said he already has concerns about Pompeo’s ability to deliver impartial views to the White House.

IRAN DEAL

Pompeo, along with Flynn and Mattis, has been a strident critic of the Iran nuclear deal, and Pillar wondered whether Pompeo would be a dispassionate actor if intelligence agencies conclude that Iran is abiding by the deal.

“I see the danger of a lasting dysfunctional relationship based on the president-elect’s perception that he is being wronged by the intelligence community,” Pillar said.

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