Posted by: maboulette | October 19, 2016

Is There A Landslide in The Making?


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Even as cable news now spends half its time hyping Donald Trump’s total collapse in the polls, and the other half of its time highlighting any minor polling fluctuations which suggest Hillary Clinton might somehow simultaneously also be in trouble, the actual poll numbers paint a rather different story. Polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight has become renowned for averaging the polls together to make consistently accurate predictions – and it’s now painting a remarkably stable picture for the 2016 election.

Even as cable news networks focus on outlier polls to suggest that Donald Trump is either making a comeback in Ohio or outright leading the key swing state, FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of all the polls in that state has led to the calculation that Hillary Clinton currently has a 66% percent chance of winning Ohio. In the other three largest swing states, Hillary is being given a 77% chance of winning Florida, a 90% chance of winning Pennsylvania, and 72% chance of winning North Carolina. So which swing states are still in play?

Well, none of them, according to FiveThirtyEight. Clinton is the most vulnerable in Iowa, where she currently has a 63% chance of winning. In other swing states she has 91% odds in Wisconsin and 94% odds in Virginia; the latter number helps explain why the Trump campaign pulled out of Virginia and gave up on the state. There is also one decidedly red state in which Hillary is now favored.

Despite Arizona’s status as a solidly red state in modern presidential elections, Hillary Clinton is now being given a 58% chance of winning it. Although she’s also launched advertising campaigns in some other red states, they don’t appear to be as easily in reach. For instance has just a 28% chance of winning Georgia, and just a 9% chance in Utah. So as things stand now, she’s only on track to pick off one red state.

But that still means that Hillary Clinton is now favored to win every blue state, every swing state, and one red state. That points to an Electoral College landslide. That’s not a surprise. FiveThirtyEight’s three different national predictive models give her an 85%, 88%, and 91% chance of becoming President. There are still three weeks until Election Day, and things can change. But the professional polling analysis confirms that cable news is more or less making things up when it claims that Trump is pulling ahead in certain states or that the overall election is somehow tightening. You can view the numbers here and click on various states for the predictions.

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